The NFL Playoffs are now down to two teams and we’ll continue to get you ready with all the betting content you need as we begin our final march toward Super Bowl 57. We covered Patrick Mahomes props as well as ones for his counterpart Jalen Hurts, and focused on the running game with Miles Sanders, so now we turn our attention to pass-catchers with Travis Kelce.
If you missed our earlier coverage, we’ve gone over the different ways you can bet on the Super Bowl and how previous Super Bowl trends could help you hit on your bets for this year. Make sure to go ahead and check those out.
- Moneyline: PHI (-125) KC (+105)
- Spread: Eagles +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 50.5 (-110)
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Top Player Props for Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce UNDER 22.5 yards longest reception
Even though I think Kelce will have a solid game, let’s start with an under here. We know the Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL allowing just 10.1 yards per completion. Given their crazy pass rush, they also allowed just 5.8 air yards per pass attempt this year, the fewest in the NFL. Since Patrick Mahomes’ ankle will likely not be 100% and he might not be as effective at buying time in the pocket, the Chiefs could work shorter passes to march the ball down the field.
Add to that the fact that Kelce has gone under this total in each of the last four games and six of his last eight, and I think we have a solid case to make for Kelce chipping away at the Eagles on Sunday but not hitting any massive plays.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (+105)
Travis Kelce OVER 8.5 receptions (alternate line)
The betting line for receptions for Travis Kelce is 6.5, but the odds are -185 for him to go OVER so there is no value in you taking that bet. If anything, I think the line will bump to 7.5 soon, so I would get this alternate bet in while you can.
We covered above that Kelce might not hit any home run plays against the Eagles, but he is going to be very much involved in this game. I would easily see Mahomes using Kelce as his safety valve against the Philadelphia pressure, and I really don’t think the Eagles will mind wrapping Kelce up after 6-7 yards on his receptions. With the Chiefs’ wide receivers banged up, I expect to see a lot of action going Kelce’s way on Sunday, so I like this bet.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: Bet365 (+130)
Dallas Goedert (+38.5) receiving yards OVER Travis Kelce
Draftkings Sportsbook has a cool head-to-head bet feature where you can bet on certain players and stats against one another. Here, we can look at the total yardage between both teams’ tight ends. As you can see from the odds, Travis Kelce is a 38.5-yard favorite over Dallas Goedert. I think that’s a mistake.
As we’ve covered above, I expect the Eagles to limit big plays from Kelce. Kelce has also only gone over 100 yards four times this season, averaging 78.7 yards per game. He’s also averaged just 63 yards in his last two games against the Eagles. Let’s say he’s able to get to 70 or even 80 yards in the Super Bowl, that would still mean the Chiefs need to hold Goedert to 31 or 41 yards. I don’t see that happening.
Since I think this game will be close and both teams will be throwing, I expect Goedert to find some success against a Chiefs defense that was 13th in the NFL in yards per game allowed to tight ends and also gave up the fifth-most touchdowns to them with nine total. Goedert’s over/under is set at 48.5, which means Kelce would need to hit 87 yards to beat that. I’m fine taking Goedert’s side in this one.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (-115)
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