Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins: top player props for Wild Card Weekend

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Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills take on the Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tackle Spencer Brown (79) exhale before a successful two-point attempt in the second half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears in Chicago, Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

The Miami Dolphins are back to take on the Buffalo Bills in this AFC East juggernaut grudge match (as if they haven’t seen enough of each other). We have more Wildcard football, and this time it’ll be in the frozen tundra of Orchard Park, New York.

Even with temperatures that will flirt with 30 degrees, the warm-blooded Dolphins are without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and likely backup Teddy Bridgewater. That means Skylar Thompson will look to make his best Brock Purdy impression to keep the Fins alive. Should we check on Dan Marino?

And amidst the emotional outpour for Damar Hamlin, the Bills will look to take down their South Beach counterparts and swim upstream to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

All you can say is thank god for playoff football. Let’s take a look before the forecast changes.


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Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Game Details:

Betting Stats:

  • MONEYLINE: BUF ML (-850), MIA ML (+600)
  • SPREAD: BUF -13.5
  • OVER/UNDER: 43.5


Top Player Props:

Caesars Maryland




James Cook – o/11.5 Receiving Yards

James Cook’s fumble on the first carry of his career and in front of a national Amazon Thursday Night Football audience seems like a distant memory.

Cook’s snap count has gone up drastically beginning in Week 13 to the point where he even appeared on nine more than Devin Singletary a week ago.

While the increased workload hasn’t translated to an uptick in receiving yards, averaging just 7.25 yards per game for the last four weeks, he’s drawing an extremely favorable matchup with the Dolphins.

Miami’s allowing an astounding 42.1 yards receiving to opposing running backs per game. That’s a wild number, and I think Cook takes advantage on Sunday.

Where to bet: I also like Cook with o/1.5 receptions for -155, but you can get this on FanDuel Sportsbook at -114 odds.


Gabriel Davis – o/48.5 Receiving Yards

Our guy Gabriel Davis is boom-bust incarnate.

You’ll bite your nails all game just for a 15-yard goose egg, as he did in Week 13 against the New England Patriots, and then see one forty-yard reception in the first quarter the following week. A walking, talking mystery box.

I really like this because, although it only resulted in 39 total yards, Davis’ is fresh off a ten-target performance in Week 18. It’s a volume play, and I think it would surprise many that Davis leads Buffalo receivers in total snaps with 33% of the entire corps. Take that, Stefon Diggs.

I also love that Davis finished his last matchup against the Dolphins with 56 yards receiving on four catches. It’ll make you nervous, but I think it’s worth a flier if you’re bold enough.

Where to bet: head on over to DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can find this one at -105 odds


Skylar Thompson – u/171.5 passing yards

They can’t all be over the total, and if you watched Thompson last week against the New York Jets, you understand why this one makes sense. For one, Thompson hasn’t thrown for over 166 yards in any of his seven professional appearances.

Even in his final year at Kansas State, Thompson averaged just 211.2 yards per game, so I wouldn’t call him a sling machine.

I’d be shocked if Thompson got going against a Bill defense that ranks 9th in the NFL.

Where to bet: you can get Thompson passing props at -114 over at FanDuel Sportsbook.


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Gabe Davis wide receiver Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) catches a touchdown pass from quarterback Josh Allen with Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, rear, defending during the first half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)