It’s officially Super Bowl Sunday! We’ve been counting down to The Big Game with some of our favorite prop bets for a slew of players, and earlier today we looked at our favorite Same Game Parlays.
Now, we’ll wrap up with our top bets for Super Bowl MVP.
If you missed our earlier prop bet articles, make sure to check them out. We covered Patrick Mahomes props as well as ones for his counterpart Jalen Hurts. We then focused on the running game with Miles Sanders, and began looking at pass-catchers with Travis Kelce and then A.J. Brown player props.
We also did more general sports betting content, going over the different ways you can bet on the Super Bowl and how previous Super Bowl trends could help you hit on your bets for this year. And we even had a little fun with our favorite exotic prop bets like the color of the Gatorade poured on the winning coach at the end of the game.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: PHI (-125) KC (+105)
- Spread: KC +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 50.5 (-110)
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Super MVP Betting Trends
Before we get into our top contenders for this year’s Super Bowl MVP, we should look at a few facts that can help us decide where to wager our hard-earned money.
- A Super Bowl MVP will always come from the winning team
- 55.4% of the time, a quarterback wins the Super Bowl MVP
- 11 of the last 16 Super Bowls awarded the MVP to a quarterback
- Among non-quarterbacks, defenders are the most common winner
- Linebackers are the most common defenders to win (4), with lineman right behind (3)
- A tight end has NEVER won Super Bowl MVP
Top Super Bowl MVP Favorites
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, click here to see fully updated odds
Jalen Hurts (+130)
It makes sense that Hurts is a co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes. We covered above that quarterbacks are the most likely winner of this award, and the Eagles are the betting favorite, so it follows that Hurts would be the top MVP choice.
However, I don’t love this bet. If you actually look at the player prop market for Hurts, he seems to be projected for 239 passing yards, 50 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. That’s, well, not really a Super Bowl MVP kind of line.
When you add to that the fact that we’re not sure Hurts is 100% coming off of his shoulder injury and that Hurts had two or fewer TDs, counting rushing, in nine of his 17 games this year, this looks less enticing as a bet.
Patrick Mahomes (+130)
Now, a Mahomes MVP bet I can get behind much more. You know that, if the Chiefs are able to win this game, it’s going to be because Mahomes did something special. The Chiefs simply don’t have the depth that the Eagles do, so a lot falls onto Mahomes’ shoulders.
However, a lot of sharp money has come in on the Eagles, causing the line to move three points from where it started. If Mahomes is going to win MVP then the Chiefs need to win this game, and Vegas seems to be telling us that it’s more likely that does not happen.
So while this is a tempting bet, and certainly one of the more likely ones, it doesn’t feel like a great investment at these odds.
Travis Kelce (+1600)
If any offensive player on the Chiefs is going to win Super Bowl MVP apart from Mahomes, it’s going to be Kelce. We’ve all seen those games where the Kansas City tight end goes for 90 yards and three touchdowns on 10+ receptions. That kind of game will win you an MVP.
However, we also covered above that a tight end has NEVER won Super Bowl MVP, which means that Kelce will have to do something extraordinary, something we’ve potentially never seen before, to capture the award. It’s hard to feel super comfortable betting on that.
A.J. Brown (+1800)
DeVonta Smith (+3100)
OK, so if the Eagles win the Super Bowl and Hurts is NOT the MVP, then who could it be? The Chiefs’ defense ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s, so banking on an Eagles wide receiver to take home the prize makes some sense.
In my A.J. Brown player props article, I mentioned that I thought Brown would go UNDER 5.5 receptions, but OVER 70.5 receiving yards and also score a touchdown. But does 5 catches for 90 yards and a TD win you the MVP? No, I don’t think so.
To me, Smith is the better bet of the two to have a blow-up game. If we take out the 49ers game, which was a total anomaly, Smith had averaged 6.4 catches for 92.6 yards a game in the previous six games while scoring five TDs. Against Dallas on Christmas Eve, he went for 113 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the kind of performance that can steal this award.
Haason Reddick (+3400)
Welcome to my favorite bet for Super Bowl MVP. I mentioned above that when a quarterback doesn’t win, a defensive player has won more often than a wide receiver or running back. Amongst defensive players, a linebacker has won more than any other position, and anybody who watched the NFC Championship game knows that Reddick can be a terror on defense.
The Eagles had far-and-away the best pass rush in the entire NFL this year, and Reddick was the leader of that group. He currently has 19.5 sacks, if you include the playoffs, and has at least one sack in eight of his last 10 games. While he lost Defensive Player of the Year to Nick Bosa, he was the only other player to get multiple votes.
If the Eagles win this game and keep the Chiefs’ offense from putting up big numbers, voters will look to the defense to see how they were able to do it. If Reddick’s numbers stand out, there’s a good chance he can capture this award.
Miles Sanders (+5000)
Isiah Pacheco (+5000)
Jerick McKinnon (+5000)
I honestly just can’t see betting on any running back here. In my head, this game isn’t going to be one where one of these teams has a comfortable lead and is able to lean on the running game.
If I was going to choose one of these players, I’d be more inclined to bet on Pacheco since he’s also becoming a factor in the passing game, while Miles Sanders is not. I don’t see any reason to bet on McKinnon, who is being phased out of the offense.
Chris Jones (+5000)
We’ll end with one more defensive possibility.
The Chiefs have their own game-wrecker in defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones was a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and had five games with two or more sacks. He’s capable of taking over games, and if the Chiefs are able to win a low-scoring game where they totally stifle Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, I could envision a world where Jones gets the MVP award.
I’m just not comfortable betting that that’s how this game is going to go.
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