We have a doozy of a college football slate this week with six different games featuring clashes between ranked teams. We’ll see battles for early conference leads in the Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, and more.
However, it’s important to keep in mind that sometimes the best games from a viewing and entertainment standpoint as not the best games to wager on. We want to identify spots that are most likely to be profitable, even if the games themselves could be hard to watch.
Still, there are plenty of strong betting games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 7.
Iowa State vs. Texas
17 points? Are we sure?
I mean, I know Texas just crushed Oklahoma 49-0, but that’s not the same Oklahoma team you’re used to seeing. I’m not sure they’re even an above-average team. Meanwhile, Iowa State has a solid team and maybe the best defense in the Big 12.
Historically, Texas has also struggled against the Cyclones’ defense and Iowa State has won each of the last three meetings with Texas averaging just 16 points per game in those defeats. I know Texas is better this year, but 17 points?
Iowa State hasn’t lost a game by more than 17 points since the start of the 2017 season. In fact, the Cyclones are 17-4 when being at least a touchdown underdog, including 14-1 when that comes against a Big 12 team.
Lastly, this is a classic trap game for Texas after crushing Oklahoma last week and getting prepared to face 8th-ranked Oklahoma State next week. Can they keep their focus on an opponent that has dropped three straight games or will they be thinking about their Big 12 future?
Even with Iowa State’s recent struggles, I think they can cover this spread, and I’d urge you to read the work of our Iowa State insider Christian Royston to see even more about this game.
Best Bet: Iowa State + 16.5 (-110) | BetMGM Sportsbook
Penn State vs. Michigan
This will be the stiffest test of the season for both teams, and we’l get our first taste of what each one is really made of.
Michigan turned to J.J. McCarthy at quarterback this year and his numbers are tremendous. He is completing 78.3% of his passes with nine touchdowns and only one interception. He also has the mobility to escape the pocket and pick up a first down or two with his legs, which could be a major asset here since Penn State will send pressure, which could open up big running lanes for the quarterback.
Penn State’s defense has also been vulnerable in the middle of the field with the linebackers who struggle in coverage, so that could mean a big day for leading receiver Ronnie Bell or tight end Luke Schoonmaker. However, Michigan will likely keep turning to running back Blake Corum who is 3rd in the nation in rushing yards and has averaged 28 carries per game in conference play. He toasted Maryland for 243-yards and has yet to find a defense that can stop him.
However, Michigan’s defense showed some cracks last week against the pace and screen game of Indiana. The Hoosiers moved the ball rather easily on a number of drives, and I’m sure Penn State noticed. The Wolverines are good against the run, but they are replacing a bunch of key playmakers from last year, and have a new defensive coordinator. Their young players have stepped up but also operate in a high-risk, high-reward scheme that leaves itself open to big plays.
Best Bet: MICH/PSU o50.5 (-110) | Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook
Oklahoma State at TCU
It’s been fun watching TCU this year, and I’ve been impressed by them in a lot of games; however, last week’s performance against Kansas wasn’t one of them. Despite Kansas losing starting quarterback Jalon Daniels, the TCU defense allowed this to remain a game. They let backup Jason Bean complete 16-of-24 passes for 262 yards and four touchdowns. That is not inspiring before they face Spencer Sanders and Oklahoma State this week. This could be an extremely high-scoring game, but I think the Cowboys have a bit too much firepower to be getting points in this one.
Best Bet: Okla State +4 (-107) | PointsBet
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
I know the Spartans have lost four straight and failed to cover in each, but I just don’t buy this Wisconsin team. I think we’re getting an inflated line because the Badgers beat a down Northwestern team on the road. That makes this a perfect buying opportunity for Michigan State, who will be at home for their Homecoming game.
They are also getting back two of their most important defenders, safety Xavier Henderson and defensive tackle Jacob Slade, who have been injured for each of the last four games. That should help their defense, particularly their run defense against this Wisconsin team that you know wants to pound the ball on the ground.
Graham Mertz may have been good against Northwestern, but he’s been a below-average passer for his entire college career, so I don’t think he’s the guy that can take advantage of this Spartans’ poor passing defense. Which means seven points is just too much.
Best Bet: Michigan State +7.5 (-107) | PointsBet
For more college football best bets, make sure to check out amNY Sports
