2022 NBA Finals: Warriors vs Celtics Game 6 preview, odds, and pick

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The Warriors are trying to close out the 2022 NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins, left, celebrates with forward Draymond Green (23) during the first half of Game 5 of basketball’s NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics in San Francisco, Monday, June 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

After Boston took a 2-1 lead in the 2022 NBA Finals, the Warriors have come roaring back and are now one game away from securing the NBA championship. Can they close it out in Game 6? 


If you want a more detailed look at this series, read our full series breakdown.

Playoff Tale of the Tape:

112.3 (2nd) Points Per Game 106.2 (9th)
107.6 (7th) Points Allowed Per Game 101.9 (3rd)
37.3% (T-4th) 3PT Shooting % 37.3% (T-4th)
37.5% (12th) Opponent 3PT Shooting % 32.7% (3rd)
13.7 (T-9th) Turnovers per game 13.7 (T-9th)

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Celtics Playoff leaders:

Boston Celtics Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) reacts after hitting a three-point shot against the Golden State Warriors during the first quarter of Game 4 of basketball’s NBA Finals, Friday, June 10, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
  • Jayson Tatum, F. – 26.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 39.6% 3PT
  • Jaylen Brown, G. – 22.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 36.7% 3PT
  • Al Horford, F. – 11.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.4 BPG, 51.4% FG


Warriors Playoff Leaders:

Warriors Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) goes up for a shot against Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) during the fourth quarter of Game 4 of basketball’s NBA Finals, Friday, June 10, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
  • Stephen Curry, PG: 27.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, 39% 3PT
  • Klay Thompson, SG: 19.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 39.1% 3PT
  • Andrew Wiggins, SF: 16.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 47.4% FG

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Key Injuries:

  • No major injuries


Game 6 Prediction and Free Pick:

  • The early instinct might be to side with Boston because they’re at home, but remember that being at home wasn’t always a good thing for Boston this season. They went 34-18 at home but just 23-27-2 against the spread. The Celtics are also just 6-5 at home in the playoffs, including 1-2 against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals and 1-1 against the Warriors so far in the NBA Finals. 
  • We also know that the Celtics have lived and died by the three this series and really these playoffs in general. During Game 5, Boston broke the record for most three-point shots made in NBA Playoff history. They’ve hit 13.8 threes per game as a team in the playoffs and are shooting at a 37.3% clip (which is actually tied with the Warriors). However, the Celtics also set a record in Game 5 with the most three-point misses to start at an NBA Finals game, going 0-12. 
  • That highlights a larger issue that this series has hinged on the Celtics’ offense more than anything. In their two wins, the Celtics had effective field goal percentages of  62.9% (Game 1) and 55.6% (Game 3). In their three losses, they have been held to an eFG% under 49% in all three. 
  • There were a few culprits in Game 5, but Jaylen Brown had his second-worst shooting performance of the postseason. He shot 5-of-18 from the field and missed all five of his 3-point attempts. The Celtics themselves were 11-32 from beyond the arc for a 34.4% shooting percentage. 
  • Boston also struggled on the offensive end with turnovers. Their 18.4% turnover rate was their second-highest of the series and all three of their losses have coincided with their three-highest turnover rates.
  • While a lot has been made about the Warriors being able to win Game 4 with Stephen Curry shooting just 7-22 from the field and 0-9 from beyond the arc, the offensive output from the rest of the team was not really that awe-inspiring. Andrew Wiggins played well with 26 points, 13 rebounds, and two assists, but he did shoot 0-6 from three, and 76.9% of his offense came from inside the paint. 
  • In fact, Klay Thompson was the only Warriors starter to make a 3-pointer in Game 5. He finished 5-of-11 from beyond the arc and scored 71.4% of his points on threes. The rest of the Warriors starters combined to shoot 0-of-17 from 3-point range.
  • Given the Warriors are continuing to struggle to score points, Game 6 could hinge simply on whether or not Boston can find their offensive efficiency again. If the Celtics can find their ball movement again and knock down their three-point shots, it might not matter if Stephen Curry is able to put up 30+ points again. 
  • Last 5 – ATS: BOS is 2-3-0 ATS in their last 5 games. GS is 3-2-0 ATS in their last 5 games. 
  • Last 5 – O/U: BOS is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games. GS is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – Score: BOS averaged 103 total points in their last 5 games. GS averaged 105.2 total points.
  • Last 5 – Score Allowed: BOS allowed 105.2 points on average in their last 5 games. GS allowed 103 points.