The NFL Playoffs will kick off this weekend, and the Chiefs will enter as the favorite to win the 2023 Super Bowl, according to most sportsbooks.
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Kansas City holds the number one seed in the AFC thanks to Buffalo’s game against Cincinnati being canceled after Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest and had to be resuscitated mid-game. The Chiefs will now get a bye in the first round and home-field advantage, unless they play the Bills in the AFC Championship game, which will be hosted at a neutral site thanks to a rule change voted on by the NFL after the Hamlin incident.
However, even though the Chiefs enter the playoffs as the betting favorite, there are four teams that Vegas appears to think are viable contenders and a few intriguing dark horses in the field.
Let’s dive into the full odds and some of our favorite bets with odds courtesy of DraftKings.
| Team | Odds to win |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
+350 |
| Buffalo Bills | +400 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +500 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +550 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +850 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1200 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2800 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +3500 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3500 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +5000 |
| New York Giants | +5500 |
| Miami Dolphins | +6000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +7000 |
The Favorites
From the odds above, it’s clear that the betting favorites are the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Eagles. That’s no surprise since those are the four teams with the best records heading into the playoffs.
It’s easy to make a case for betting on the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes is under center. He is a generational player and is capable of leading them to a victory in any game, which is exactly why the Chiefs keep eking out victories. However, Football Outsiders ranks them 17th in defensive DVOA, which is concerning when they have odds this low and will be going up against some of the best offenses in football. They may be a strong contender for the title, but they are not the best bet on the board.
The Bills have also been a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl throughout much of the season and many have tabbed them as a “team of destiny.” While we shouldn’t bet money on destiny, the Bills will also not have to play any true road games given the scenario outlined above. Earlier in the year, the Bills’ Super Bowl odds were as low as +230 at some sportsbooks and now you can get them in some places at +420. That’s pretty good value
The San Francisco 49ers are also a trendy pick and have been playing some great football of late. Since the rest of the NFC is a giant question mark, it’s easy to see how the 49ers can make the 2023 Super Bowl, but at some point, rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy is going to have to struggle. The 49ers at +180 to win the NFC feels like a bit of a better bet to me, and I think we can all agree that a Purdy vs Brady showdown of late-round quarterbacks would be fun to watch in the NFC playoffs.
Contenders
One of those NFC question marks is the Cowboys, and I’m going to urge that you fade them. They are not the dominant team we made them out to be earlier in the season, especially on defense where they have really struggled of late. Football Outsiders has them second in total DVOA for the season, but they’ve allowed 27.2 points per game over the final five weeks of the regular season. They’ve looked poor against teams led by Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, and Sam Howell in his NFL debut, so I don’t even feel confident that they beat Tom Brady on Wild Card Weekend.
However, one of the dark horse candidates I like to reach the 2023 Super Bowl is the Los Angeles Chargers. They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and their defense has been great since their Week 8 bye, ranking 2nd in pass DVOA since then. With Derwin James and Joey Bosa both now healthy, they have an elite defensive unit to pair with an explosive offense. They just need to stop beating themselves. Still, you can find them at +2500 to win the 2023 Super Bowl on some books and that feels worthy of a small bet.
For more betting content like these 2023 Super Bowl odds, visit amNY Sports
