MLB best bets: Free picks for MLB slate on August 23rd

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Baltimore celebrates an MLB win
Baltimore Orioles’ Jorge Mateo, left, is embraced by Ramon Urias after hitting a three-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 19, 2022, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 23rd

MLB Best Bets

We started this week just under .500, so we need to identify if there are any series where the model may be not seeing the bigger picture. 

We start with two games on the runline BAL +1.5 (-148) and SEA -1.5 (-118). Baltimore is going up against Dylan Cease, which is certainly why they are the underdogs here, but the Orioles have been the much better team of late. Also, Austin Voth has been pitching pretty well, so our model actually has Baltimore as 0.87 run favorites here. That makes Baltimore one of the best values on the board, but I want to adjust a little bit more for Cease than the model is currently doing, so I’ll take the runs. 

Same with Seattle, where the model has the Mariners favored by 1.89 total runs, which is slightly under the two runs I like to see if I lay 1.5. However, the model is using last month offensive numbers, which weighs in over a week of Juan Soto and Josh Bell into Washington’s production. Robbie Ray has been so good, so I’ll adjust that small gap in the difference and take Seattle minus the runs. 

We have four games on the moneyline tonight, starting with one that worked for us last night STL ML (-129). The games in this series have been surprisingly close, and the Cardinals did drop the first game of the doubleheader today, but I think that they are the vastly superior team, and the model sees them as 1.84 run favorites, even with Jake Woodford on the mound.

We’ll also go back to NYM ML (+115) which didn’t work out well for us last night, but perhaps the model doesn’t know that the Mets simply don’t like to score runs for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Taijuan Walker has been good this season and is reportedly healthy, so the model actually has the Mets as 1.11 run favorites here. It’s a risky play, but one like. 

The final two money games are TOR ML (-139) and ARI ML (-126). The Boston Red Sox are a bit of a mess and just put Eric Hosmer on the IL. Josh Winckowski is back for the game, but he hasn’t been good of late, and the model has Toronto favored by 0.80 runs with Ross Stripling on the mound. The model also prefers Zach Davies to Jon Heasley and likes this feisty Arizona offense as 1.45 run favorites over Kansas City, who has scored only 3.5 runs a game over the last month, which is among the worst in MLB action. 

Lastly, we end with two under plays and one over: MIA/OAK U 7.5 (-125), SF/DET U 7.5 (-112) and MIL/LAD O7 (-115). We hit on the Miami under yesterday, and we’re going back to the well again tonight with two of the worst offenses in baseball. With Pablo Lopez on the mound, our model sees this at 5.45 total runs, which is comfortably under. The model is also a big believer in Carlos Rodon shutting down Detroit, so it predicts the total in that game to be 6.39 total runs, which gives us some cushion on the under as well. 

The Dodgers game is another tough one, since the model liked the over last night and it simply didn’t hit. These are of the better offenses in MLB facing good pitching, and sometimes the pitching just wipes out the offensive production. That would seem to be the case with Corbin Burnes and Tony Gonsolin on the hill tonight, but I’m going to trust the model, which sees this at 8.57 total runs, which is comfortably over the line of seven that Vegas is giving. 

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Corbin Burnes makes MIL an MLB best bet
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes throws during the first inning of an MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday, Aug. 18, 2022, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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