MLB best bets: Free picks for MLB slate on August 9th

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Carlos Carrasco makes the Mets an MLB best bet
New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) throws in the second inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Wednesday, June 1, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 9th

MLB best bets

Monday was just a short slate, but we started out the week 3-2, which isn’t so bad. I do maybe need to stop picking on Jordan Lyles for a bit, but I really thought Toronto would be able to chase him early. Oh well. 

We only have one straight-up head-to-head bet tonight, and it’s the NYY ML (-135). There are obviously other spots where I feel confident that the team is going to win, but either the odds aren’t set to make it a smart bet or I think the team will win by enough that I’m going to take the run line. The Yankees responded for us last night after that poor series against the Cardinals, and we’re going back to the well here after they lost to Castillo last time out. Our model has the Yankees favored by 1.46 runs, so we should feel confident in the ML here. 

A few of those teams who I think will win by enough that I like the runline play are LAD -1.5 (-113), NYM -1.5 (-146), and PHI -1.5 (-107). The Mets have the best odds to cover, but it’s almost pushing our -150 cap. I usually don’t want to have to bet $150 to win $100, but this falls just under, so we’ll roll with it since the Mets have looked tremendous since the deadline and our model has them favored by 1.71 runs. 

I really like Braxton Garrett, so I’m surprised I’m recommending Philadelphia as a best bet, but I just can’t see this Marlins offense getting much going against Zack Wheeler. Our model sees the Phillies winning by 2.24 runs, and the Marlins have the lowest projected total at 1.96 team runs. 

The Dodgers are also in a really favorable spot, according to the model with an advantage of 2.68 total runs. This Minnesota team is solid, but Joe Ryan has been giving up a lot of hard contact, and the Dodgers remain one of the best teams in baseball. 

The other runline best bet I like is KC +1.5 (-141). Lance Lynn has been awful of late, and Brady Singer has been tremendous. It wouldn’t shock me if the Royals won this outright, especially with Tim Anderson likely now done for the season. The model has the White Sox favored by 0.51 runs, so I went with the runline, but I woudn’t blame you for playing this outright. 

Lastly, the model sees the TOR/BAL game finishing with 10.23 total runs thanks to Kyle Bradish’s struggles and two talented offenses, so Over 8.5 (-115) seems like a best bet, and the model also likes Minnesota and Los Angeles to finish with 10.10 total runs, which makes Over 8 (-114) appealing. 

The model is not as bullish on Washington and the Cubs, where Marcus Stroman has been truly elite since coming off the IL, and the Cubs offense is fairly average. Our model sees 6.55 total runs, which makes Under 7.5 (-107) a borderline play, but one I like. 

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Marcus Stroman pitches in an MLB game
Chicago Cubs’ Marcus Stroman pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of an MLB game in San Francisco, Friday, July 29, 2022. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

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